Visa (NYSE: V) And Mastercard (NYSE: MA) Deserved A Higher Price
Introduction
Both Visa, Inc. (V) and MasterCard, Inc. (MA) enjoyed explosive moves in their stock values on Wednesday, June 29, 2011. Visa was up over 15% and MasterCard over 11% thanks to the Fed's more liberal-than-expected stance on debit fee regulations. In our opinion, this perceived regulatory overhang had caused the share prices of these consistent and powerful earnings generators to sit below their intrinsic value. Therefore, we believed that the Durbin Amendment, although problematic for both Visa and MasterCard, would be less impactful to their long-term business opportunities than their low stock prices indicated.
The true value investor understands the importance of fundamentals over short-term market action. In , Ben Graham taught us why it was important, and also, how to be an intelligent patient investor. The father of modern security analysis, and the dean of value investing, focused first on analyzing and determining the intrinsic value of a business. Then, only after completing this vital and most important task, would he look to see how the market was currently valuing the business. Mr. Graham summarized this important principle with his famous quote that I reference often:
The most important point which we are trying to articulate is that it is not possible that the True Worth™ value of multibillion-dollar enterprises could change by as much as 15% in one single trading day. Either the market was wrong the day before this happened, or it is wrong now that it has happened, or as we believe, the market is wrong on both days. Volatility at extreme levels can only be thought of as irrational behavior. Accepting the idea that the stock market can misprice a common stock at any time is an attribute that prudent value investors possess. Therefore, they are empowered to exploit the folly when it manifests.
Visa and MasterCard by the Numbers
The following earnings and price correlated F.A.S.T. Graphs™ on Visa (V) and then MasterCard (MA) illustrate several important points regarding the valuation of their stocks on June 28, 2011, one day before the powerful advances referenced above. Both companies had been able to generate consistent above-average earnings growth right through the recent trying economic times. Nevertheless, both companies experienced historically low stock price valuations in spite of their excellent operating records. In other words the only thing that was down was their price.
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In our opinion, this perceived regulatory overhang had caused the share prices of these consistent and powerful earnings generators to sit below their intrinsic value. Therefore, we believed that the Durbin Amendment, although problematic for both Visa
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